A spatial investigation of NYC's congestion-pricing program

What Changed in NYC's Air After Congestion Pricing?

Sixteen months of satellite measurements suggest nitrogen dioxide pollution declined over Manhattan's congestion zone after the January 2025 toll began. The improvement exceeded broader citywide trends, but the effect was modest and unevenly distributed across neighborhoods.

Monthly NO₂ over the congestion zone vs. the rest of NYC, January 2023 – April 2026 Both lines follow a seasonal cycle. After the January 2025 toll start, the zone line declines slightly more than the citywide line. 100 150 200 250 2023202420252026 Toll begins · Jan 5 2025 Zone Citywide
Monthly tropospheric NO₂ (μmol/m²) over the congestion zone and the rest of NYC. The seasonal cycle is the dominant pattern in both series; the gap widens slightly after the January 2025 toll.

Observed

−1.86 pp

Raw difference, zone vs. rest of NYC, before vs. after

n=24 cordon px · 95% CI [−2.26, −1.46] pp

Adjusted

−4.00 pp

Placebo-corrected (2024 vs. 2023 baseline)

n=2,000 bootstrap · 95% CI [−4.55, −3.44] pp

Scope
Manhattan,
south of 60th St
Period
Jan 2023 – Apr 2026,
16-month windows
Instrument
Sentinel-5P TROPOMI
monthly NO₂ grids

Chapters

01

The Air

How nitrogen dioxide changed across NYC after congestion pricing began.
02

Methods

The placebo design, the satellite, the stratification, and what the data can responsibly say.
03

Other Findings

Traffic, transit, and the spillover effects that did — and didn't — appear.
04

Verdict

What the evidence suggests, what remains uncertain, and where the analysis reaches its limits.